Peut-on anticiper le cours du bitcoin ?

Here is an article that will be aimed more at those who are interested in cryptocurrencies and in particular #bitcoin (#BTC). Those who know me know that I am passionate about anticipation, the future and technical analysis. This explains why I am interested in bitcoin. And, whether we like it or not, it remains and will remain (for a few more years) the benchmark cryptocurrency that is setting the trend in this emerging market that is decentralized finance (#DEFI): more capitalized and less likely to undergo manipulations than other cryptocurrencies or tokens, bitcoin gives the "LA" on this future in the making.

I had published a short message a few months ago presenting a new method of analysis allowing to anticipate the position of #BTC in the medium term (~ 6 months to 2 years), but I had not since updated this information .

Interestingly, this method makes it possible to answer a question that all those interested in this field of activity ask themselves:

 Until when and to what level will the price of bitcoin continue to fall?

This is the question was recently asked by "Changpeng Zhao" the CEO of Binance on Twitter.

The foundations of the algorithm mentioned here were laid at the end of December 2021: I then understood that the cycle of the rise of #BTC was over and that a long descent awaited us. Although it is based on solid technical data (from Glassnode), it has no equivalent to my knowledge.

Working on this pattern, in March 2022, I was anticipating a price "landing" around mid-2023, targeting a threshold of around $14k. And since then this anticipation has remained unchanged. During the summer of 2022, I finally coded this algorithm on the TradingView platform so that I could run it instantly.

Since then, I launch it from time to time to see "if it stays in the nails": a forecasting model whatever it is will always end up being contradicted by reality, it is never infallible. I indicate on the graphs below, in trend, the theoretical lowest point: June 13, 2023 (!)

This falling point is calculated using the red and green curve located at the bottom of the following graph. This curve is the "key": it is built on the basis of an indicator provided by Glassnode called the "Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio". Without going into details, this indicator is "restored" over time so as to provide a consistent view of redistribution activity to miners over time. When it's red you have to be "short" / seller, when it's "green" you have to be a buyer.

On a graph with the price of #BTC (log) I had given at the end of August, with blue dotted lines I symbolize the expected trend within a descending corridor and its final point of fall in yellow.

Verification in September:

Then, verification in November:

And now the point of this day, in December:

These are diagrams that I have shared in recent months with a few friends and contacts. You will find one pinned on my Twitter feed (@micvaillant).

Of course, this is not investment advice. Given the current context, I think it is better to wait before embarking on a crypto project. Positive point: this downward cycle will have contributed to cleaning up a myriad of useless tokens but also will have revealed scams of all kinds (see recent episodes related to the #Luna crypto and the #FTX market place ).

Finally, there is an interesting concordance with the equity markets: bitcoin is increasingly correlated with them, especially with #NASDAQ and "new tech": investor profiles are sometimes similar and this is particularly the case with certain stocks. like those of #Tesla. We could therefore expect a rebound in these markets at the same time, mid-2023.

To be continued !

Reference

• Can we anticipate the price of Bitcoin (linkedin)?